South Africa is among countries that could benefit from initiatives to combat the shortage of Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) within the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia). The National Treasury published a consultation paper titled "Developing the South African Carbon Credit Market" at the end of October 2025. This full paper outlines potential pathways for South Africa to establish itself as a key supplier of carbon credits, thereby capitalizing on the growing global demand for EEUs as the international aviation sector seeks to mitigate its carbon footprint. The country's proactive participation in this burgeoning market could significantly enhance its economic standing, provide new revenue streams, and bolster its environmental credentials on the global stage.
Global Aviation's Carbon Challenge
Corsia Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) are carbon credits specifically approved by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) for use by airlines to meet their emissions reduction obligations. These units are key for the aviation industry's efforts to achieve its sustainability goals. Airlines are projected to acquire approximately 200-million Corsia EEUs by January 2028, representing a substantial market estimated to be worth between $4 billion and $5 billion. This initial demand is expected to escalate significantly in the coming years, potentially reaching nearly 2-billion EEUs through 2035 as more countries and airlines fully enter the offsetting phase of Corsia.
Recognising this escalating need and the potential for a supply deficit, the International Air Transport Association (Iata) has taken proactive steps. During its recent Annual General Meeting (AGM) held in Rio de Janeiro, Iata launched the Supporting Alliance for Corsia EEU Supply. This critical alliance aims to enhance the availability of Corsia EEUs in the market, with a specific target of boosting the supply of 225-250-million units in 2027 alone. The establishment of such an alliance shows the urgency and scale of the challenge facing the aviation industry in sourcing sufficient high-quality carbon credits.
Africa's EEU Potential and Progress
The International Air Transport Association (Iata) estimates that the African continent as a whole possesses significant potential, capable of supplying up to 57.6-million Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) to the global market. This positions Africa as a key region for addressing the worldwide demand for aviation carbon offsets. While South Africa is currently exempt from the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) offsetting requirements, this exemption is temporary and concludes in 2027, when participation becomes mandatory worldwide for all eligible states.
Several other African nations have already begun contributing to the EEU supply, demonstrating leadership and foresight in this emerging market. Countries such as Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda, Gambia, Sierra Leone, and Madagascar have successfully made EEUs available, positioning themselves as early movers. These nations are actively leveraging their natural resources, including vast forests and land suitable for reforestation and conservation projects, to generate carbon credits. These nature-based solutions are key to producing the high-integrity credits that can be used by airlines to meet their emissions reduction obligations. The continent's extensive land area and diverse ecosystems offer immense potential for developing a wide array of carbon sequestration projects, playing a significant role in addressing the global demand for aviation carbon offsets and fostering sustainable development across the region.
South Africa's Path Forward
South Africa has made progress in fulfilling its obligations under Corsia, having complied with the scheme’s monitoring, reporting, and verification requirements. However, a key step remains: a mechanism for Eligible Emissions Unit (EEU) trading has not yet been established within the country. This lack of an operational framework means that while South Africa can track its emissions, it is not yet fully positioned to generate or trade the carbon credits that the global market urgently needs.
To address this, the National Treasury's consultation paper, "Developing the South African Carbon Credit Market," published at the end of October 2025, is a vital step. This paper aims to explore potential avenues for the country to participate more actively and effectively in the global carbon credit market. As part of this consultative process, stakeholders were requested to submit feedback on the consultation paper by December 1, 2025. This input is key for shaping a strong and effective national framework that will enable South Africa to unlock its potential as a significant supplier of EEUs, ensuring it does not miss out on this substantial economic and environmental opportunity. The establishment of a clear and efficient trading mechanism is critical for South Africa to fully capitalize on the increasing global demand for aviation carbon offsets and secure its position in the future of sustainable aviation.
